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The market forecast tool project forms part of a suite of initiatives under the energy Market Adequacy Model (eSAM) program currently under way by the department’s Data Analytics team. The eSAM program objectives are to: i) analyse existing market data to detect trends; ii) model and forecast generator behaviour; iii) model and forecast customer demand behaviour and response to weather, energy costs and new technology; and iv) model and forecast energy prices.
The market forecast tool project will focus on developing a model to forecast generator behaviour, performance and availability.
The department would benefit from having its own market model. This would allow greater flexibility to review proposed market changes such as the Finkel review and National Energy Guarantee (NEG), support the development of energy policy within the department, provide early warning of potential concerns, and facilitate deeper understanding of the market.
Off the shelf electricity market models exist, and their potential use is being evaluated under a separate project. However; these models are somewhat limited for policy focussed analysis. Their principle limitation is that they are slow to run, and do not include behavioural analysis and dynamic modelling of customer demand and generator behaviour.
The market forecast tool would utilise a machine learning approach, which may provide valuable market insights that would not otherwise be detected.